An investigation of factors affecting changes in health behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in a UK population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to changes in behaviours, which may have different health effects in population subgroups. We investigated whether within-individual changes in health behaviours from before to during the pandemic differ by socio-economic deprivation, age or sex. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the existing UK Fenland cohort study with measurements of health behaviours twice prepandemic (2005 to February 2020) and three times during the pandemic (July 2020 to April 2021). Health behaviours included daily servings of fruit and vegetables, units of alcohol consumed per week, smoking status, sleep duration and total and domain-specific physical activity energy expenditure. Sociodemographic information (English indices of multiple deprivation, education, occupation and ethnicity) and COVID-19 antibody status were also collected. Participants were grouped into three categories based on their English indices of multiple deprivation score: most, middle and least deprived. RESULTS: Participants were included if they had completed at least one measurement during the pandemic and one prepandemic (n = 3212). Fruit and vegetable consumption, total physical activity energy expenditure and smoking prevalence decreased during the pandemic compared with prepandemic, whereas average sleep duration increased and alcohol consumption did not change. Decreases in fruit and vegetable intake and physical activity energy expenditure were most pronounced in the most deprived group compared with the least deprived group and were greater in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic inequalities in health behaviours have worsened during the pandemic. As the country emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies to reduce health inequalities need to be put at the forefront of recovery plans.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (ß = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

MC3R links nutritional state to childhood growth and the timing of puberty.

The state of somatic energy stores in metazoans is communicated to the brain, which regulates key aspects of behaviour, growth, nutrient partitioning and development1. The central melanocortin system acts through melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) to control appetite, food intake and energy expenditure2. Here we present evidence that MC3R regulates the timing of sexual maturation, the rate of linear growth and the accrual of lean mass, which are all energy-sensitive processes. We found that humans who carry loss-of-function mutations in MC3R, including a rare homozygote individual, have a later onset of puberty. Consistent with previous findings in mice, they also had reduced linear growth, lean mass and circulating levels of IGF1. Mice lacking Mc3r had delayed sexual maturation and an insensitivity of reproductive cycle length to nutritional perturbation. The expression of Mc3r is enriched in hypothalamic neurons that control reproduction and growth, and expression increases during postnatal development in a manner that is consistent with a role in the regulation of sexual maturation. These findings suggest a bifurcating model of nutrient sensing by the central melanocortin pathway with signalling through MC4R controlling the acquisition and retention of calories, whereas signalling through MC3R primarily regulates the disposition of calories into growth, lean mass and the timing of sexual maturation.

Patient-reported outcomes after 10-year follow-up of intensive, multifactorial treatment in individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes: the ADDITION-Europe trial.

AIMS: To present the longer-term impact of multifactorial treatment of type 2 diabetes on self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, and diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow up of the ADDITION-Europe trial. METHODS: The ADDITION-Europe trial enrolled 3057 individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from four centres [Denmark, the UK (Cambridge and Leicester) and the Netherlands], between 2001 and 2006. Participants were randomized at general practice level to intensive treatment or to routine care . The trial ended in 2009 and a 10-year follow-up was performed at the end of 2014. We measured self-reported health status (36-item Short-Form Health Survey and EQ-5D), diabetes-specific quality of life (Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire), and diabetes treatment satisfaction (Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at different time points during the study period. A mixed-effects model was applied to estimate the effect of intensive treatment (intention-to-treat analyses) on patient-reported outcome measures for each centre. Centre-specific estimates were pooled using a fixed effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was no difference in patient-reported outcome measures between the routine care and intensive treatment arms in this 10-year follow-up study [EQ-5D: -0.01 (95% CI -0.03, 0.01); Physical Composite Score (36-item Short-Form Health Survey): -0.27 (95% CI -1.11, 0.57), Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire: -0.01 (95% CI -0.11, 0.10); and Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire: -0.20 (95% CI -0.70, 0.29)]. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive, multifactorial treatment of individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes did not affect self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, or diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow-up compared to routine care.

Body mass index and body fat distribution and new-onset atrial fibrillation: Substudy of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Obesity is a recognized risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). The association between body fat distribution, which is measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR), its changes, and new-onset AF is conflicting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk cohort study were included, with exclusion criteria of prevalent AF, rheumatic heart disease, and cancer. AF was confirmed by the International Classification of Diseases-10 hospital discharge code I48. Adjusted sex-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the AF risk per 1 standard deviation increase and for quintiles of adiposity indices. A total of 10,885 men and 12,857 women were followed up for a median of 19 years, yielding 451,098 person-years. New-onset AF was diagnosed in 1408 (12.9%) men and 1102 (8.6%) women. Multivariable analyses showed that BMI predicted new-onset AF in all, while WHR predicted only in men. New-onset AF risk gradually increased across the range of adiposity indices: for men in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.59 (CI 1.32-1.91, p for trend<0.001), whereas for women in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.52 (CI 1.23-1.88, p for trend<0.001). Further, for men in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.31 (CI 1.09-1.57, p for trend: 0.01), whereas for women in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.12 (CI 0.90-1.41, p for trend: 0.17). The change in BMI and WHR was similar in participants with or without new-onset AF. CONCLUSIONS: An increased body mass, as measured by BMI, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF. More abdominal fat distribution, as measured by WHR, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF in men but not in women.

Associations between maternal physical activity in early and late pregnancy and offspring birth size: remote federated individual level meta-analysis from eight cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on the impact of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) in pregnancy on birth size is inconsistent. We aimed to examine the association between LTPA during early and late pregnancy and newborn anthropometric outcomes. DESIGN: Individual level meta-analysis, which reduces heterogeneity across studies. SETTING: A consortium of eight population-based studies (seven European and one US) comprising 72 694 participants. METHODS: Generalised linear models with consistent inclusion of confounders (gestational age, sex, parity, maternal age, education, ethnicity, BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake) were used to test associations between self-reported LTPA at either early (8-18 weeks gestation) or late pregnancy (30+ weeks) and the outcomes. Results were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth weight, large-for-gestational age (LGA), macrosomia, small-for-gestational age (SGA), % body fat, and ponderal index at birth. RESULTS: Late, but not early, gestation maternal moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), vigorous activity, and LTPA energy expenditure were modestly inversely associated with BW, LGA, macrosomia, and ponderal index, without heterogeneity (all: I2  = 0%). For each extra hour/week of MVPA, RR for LGA and macrosomia were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.98) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.98), respectively. Associations were only modestly reduced after additional adjustments for maternal BMI and gestational diabetes. No measure of LTPA was associated with risk for SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity in late, but not early, pregnancy is consistently associated with modestly lower risk of LGA and macrosomia, but not SGA. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: In an individual participant meta-analysis, late pregnancy moderate to vigorous physical activity modestly reduced birth size outcomes.

The descriptive epidemiology of the diurnal profile of bouts and breaks in sedentary time in older English adults.

Background: High sedentary time is associated with adverse metabolic health outcomes and mortality in older adults. It has been suggested that breaking up sedentary time may be beneficial for metabolic health; however, population prevalence data are lacking on the patterns of sedentary behaviour which would identify opportunities for intervention. Methods: We used data of adults aged ≥ 60 years (n = 3705) from the population-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort, to characterize the patterns of total sedentary time, breaks in sedentary time and sedentary bouts across the day and assess their associations with participant characteristics, using multi-level regression. Sedentary time was measured objectively by a hip-mounted accelerometer (ActigraphTM GT1M) worn for 7 days during waking time. Results: More than 50% of every waking hour was spent sedentary, increasing to a peak of 83% in the evening. On average fewer breaks were accrued in the evenings compared with earlier in the day. Marginally more sedentary time was accrued on weekend days compared with weekdays (difference 7.4 min, 95% confidence interval 5.0-9.7). Large proportions of this sedentary time appear to be accrued in short bouts (bouts of < 10 min for 32% of the time). Older age, being male, being retired, not being in paid employment and having a higher body mass index were associated with greater sedentary time and fewer breaks. Conclusion: Sedentary time is common throughout the day but peaks in the evenings with fewer breaks and longer bouts. We identified a number of characteristics associated with sedentary time and additionally inversely associated with sedentary breaks, which should inform the development and targeting of strategies to reduce sedentary time among older adults.

Adiposity and grip strength as long-term predictors of objectively measured physical activity in 93 015 adults: the UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Fatness and fitness are associated with physical activity (PA) but less is known about the prospective associations of adiposity and muscle strength with PA. This study aimed to determine longitudinal associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and grip strength (GS) with objectively measured PA. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data are from the UK Biobank study. At baseline (2006-2010), BMI, WC and GS were objectively measured. At follow-up (2013-2015), a sub-sample of 93 015 participants (52 161 women) wore a tri-axial accelerometer on the dominant wrist for 7 days. Linear regression was performed to investigate longitudinal associations of standardised BMI, WC and GS at baseline with moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and acceleration after a median 5.7-years follow-up (interquartile range: 4.9-6.5 years). RESULTS: Linear regression revealed strong inverse associations for BMI and WC, and positive associations for GS with follow-up PA; in women, MVPA ranges from lowest to highest quintiles of GS were 42-48 min day-1 in severely obese (BMI⩾35 kg m-2), 52-57 min day-1 in obese (30⩽BMI<35 kg m-2), 61-65 min day-1 in overweight (25⩽BMI<30 kg m-2) and 69-75 min day-1 in normal weight (18.5⩽BMI<25 kg m-2). Follow-up MVPA was also lower in the lowest GS quintile (42-69 min day-1) compared with the highest GS quintile (48-75 min day-1) across BMI categories in women. The pattern of these associations was generally consistent for men, and in analyses using WC and mean acceleration as exposure and outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: More pronounced obesity and poor strength at baseline independently predict lower activity levels at follow-up. Interventions and policies should aim to improve body composition and muscle strength to promote active living.

Associations between body mass index-related genetic variants and adult body composition: The Fenland cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Body mass index (BMI) is a surrogate measure of adiposity but does not distinguish fat from lean or bone mass. The genetic determinants of BMI are thought to predominantly influence adiposity but this has not been confirmed. Here we characterise the association between BMI-related genetic variants and body composition in adults. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Among 9667 adults aged 29-64 years from the Fenland study, a genetic risk score for BMI (BMI-GRS) was calculated for each individual as the weighted sum of BMI-increasing alleles across 96 reported BMI-related variants. Associations between the BMI-GRS and body composition, estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, were examined using age-adjusted linear regression models, separately by sex. RESULTS: The BMI-GRS was positively associated with all fat, lean and bone variables. Across body regions, associations of the greatest magnitude were observed for adiposity variables, for example, for each s.d. increase in BMI-GRS predicted BMI, we observed a 0.90 s.d. (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71, 1.09) increase in total fat mass for men (P=3.75 × 10-21) and a 0.96 s.d. (95% CI: 0.77, 1.16) increase for women (P=6.12 × 10-22). Associations of intermediate magnitude were observed with lean variables, for example, total lean mass: men: 0.68 s.d. (95% CI: 0.49, 0.86; P=1.91 × 10-12); women: 0.85 s.d. (95% CI: 0.65, 1.04; P=2.66 × 10-17) and of a lower magnitude with bone variables, for example, total bone mass: men: 0.39 s.d. (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58; P=5.69 × 10-5); women: 0.45 s.d. (95% CI: 0.26, 0.65; P=3.96 × 106). Nominally significant associations with BMI were observed for 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. All 28 were positively associated with fat mass and 13 showed adipose-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: In adults, genetic susceptibility to elevated BMI influences adiposity more than lean or bone mass. This mirrors the association between BMI and body composition. The BMI-GRS can be used to model the effects of measured BMI and adiposity on health and other outcomes.

Validity of visceral adiposity estimates from DXA against MRI in Kuwaiti men and women.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the Middle East is among the highest in the world. Valid measures of abdominal adiposity are essential to understanding the metabolic consequences of obesity. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is increasingly being utilised to assess body composition in population studies, and has recently been used to estimate visceral adipose tissue (VAT). The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of DXA-derived VAT in a Middle Eastern population using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as the criterion measure. METHOD: VAT was estimated from abdominal DXA measures in 237 adult men (n=130) and women (n=107), aged 18-65 years, participating in the Kuwait Wellbeing Study. These estimates were compared with MRI measures of the corresponding anatomical region. The agreement between methods was assessed using Bland-Altman as well as correlation analysis. RESULTS: Median MRI VAT was 1148.5 cm3 (95% confidence interval: 594.2-1734.6) in men and 711.3 cm3 (95% confidence interval: 395.5-1042.8) in women. DXA estimates of VAT showed high correlations with corresponding MRI measures (r=0.94 (P<0.0001) in men; r=0.93 (P<0.0001) in women). DXA overestimated VAT with a mean bias (95% limits of agreement) of 79.7 cm3 (-767 to 963) in men and 46.8 cm3 (-482 to 866) in women. The imprecision of DXA increased with increasing VAT level in both men and women. CONCLUSION: DXA estimates of VAT are valid for use in Middle Eastern populations, although accuracy decreases with increasing level of visceral adiposity.

The Dutch SCORE-based risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION: Dutch cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of modified SCORE risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure). This combined risk is derived from the SCORE mortality risk using multipliers. These multipliers have been shown to underestimate overall CVD risk. We aimed to compare the current Dutch risk charts with charts that estimate a broader range of clinically relevant CVD using updated multipliers. METHODS: We constructed new risk charts for 10-year CVD using updated, recently published multipliers from the EPIC-Norfolk study, based on ratios of fatal CVD to clinically relevant CVD (fatal plus nonfatal CVD requiring hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and aortic aneurysm). Our primary outcome was the proportion of the three risk categories, i. e. 'high risk' (>20% 10-year risk), 'intermediate risk' (10-19%) and 'low risk' (<10%) in the new risk charts as compared with the current risk charts. RESULTS: Applying the updated fatal CVD/clinical CVD multipliers led to a marked increase in the high-risk categories (109 (27%) vs. 244 (61%), (p < 0.001)), an absolute increase of 229%. Similarly, the number of low-risk categories decreased (190 (48%) vs. 81 (20%) (p < 0.001)). CONCLUSION: The current Dutch risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of clinical CVD, even in the first 10 years. Even when analyses are restricted to CVD events that required hospitalisation, true 10-year risks are more than double the currently estimated risks. Future guidelines may be revised to reflect these findings.

Cardiovascular risk factors and incident albuminuria in screen-detected type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether cardiovascular risk factor modification influences the development of renal disease in people with type 2 diabetes identified through screening. We determined predictors of albuminuria 5 years after a diagnosis of screen-detected diabetes within the ADDITION-Europe study, a pragmatic cardiovascular outcome trial of multifactorial cardiovascular risk management. METHODS: In 1826 participants with newly diagnosed, screen-detected diabetes without albuminuria, we explored associations between risk of new albuminuria (≥2.5 mg mmol-1 for males and ≥3.5 mg mmol-1 for females) and (1) baseline cardio-metabolic risk factors and (2) changes from baseline to 1 year in systolic blood pressure (ΔSBP) and glycated haemoglobin (ΔHbA1c ) using logistic regression. RESULTS: Albuminuria developed in 268 (15%) participants; baseline body mass index and active smoking were independently associated with new onset albuminuria in 5 years after detection of diabetes. In a model adjusted for age, gender, baseline HbA1c and blood pressure, a 1% decrease in HbA1c and 5-mm Hg decrease in SBP during the first year were independently associated with lower risks of albuminuria (odds ratio), 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.62 to 0.91 and 0.94, 0.88 to 1.01, respectively. Further adjustment did not materially change these estimates. There was no interaction between ΔSBP and ΔHbA1c in relation to albuminuria risk, suggesting likely additive effects on renal microvascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline measurements and changes in HbA1c and SBP a year after diagnosis of diabetes through screening independently associate with new onset albuminuria 4 years later. Established multifactorial treatment for diabetes applies to cases identified through screening.

Habitual chocolate consumption and the risk of incident heart failure among healthy men and women.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the association between chocolate intake and the risk of incident heart failure in a UK general population. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify this association. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from a prospective population-based study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort. Chocolate intake was quantified based on a food frequency questionnaire obtained at baseline (1993-1997) and incident heart failure was ascertained up to March 2009. We supplemented the primary data with a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which evaluated risk of incident heart failure with chocolate consumption. A total of 20,922 participants (53% women; mean age 58 ± 9 years) were included of whom 1101 developed heart failure during the follow up (mean 12.5 ± 2.7 years, total person years 262,291 years). After adjusting for lifestyle and dietary factors, we found 19% relative reduction in heart failure incidence in the top (up to 100 g/d) compared to the bottom quintile of chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-0.98) but the results were no longer significant after controlling for comorbidities (HR 0.87 95%CI 0.71-1.06). Additional adjustment for potential mediators did not attenuate the results further. We identified five relevant studies including the current study (N = 75,408). The pooled results showed non-significant 19% relative risk reduction of heart failure incidence with higher chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher chocolate intake is not associated with subsequent incident heart failure.

The descriptive epidemiology of accelerometer-measured physical activity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Objectively measured physical activity between older individuals and between populations has been poorly described. We aimed to describe and compare the variation in accelerometry data in older UK (EPIC-Norfolk) and American (NHANES) adults. METHODS: Physical activity was measured by uniaxial accelerometry in 4,052 UK (49-91 years) and 3459 US older adults (49-85 years). We summarized physical activity as volume (average counts/minute), its underlying intensity distribution, and as time spent <100counts/minute, ≥809counts/minute and ≥2020counts/minute both for total activity and that undertaken in ≥10-min bouts. RESULTS: In EPIC-Norfolk 65% of wear-time was spent at <100 counts/minute and 20% spent in the range 100-500 counts/minute. Only 4.1% of this cohort accumulated more than 30 min/day of activity above 2020 counts/minute in 10-min bouts. If a cut-point of >809 counts/minute is used 18.7% of people reached the 30 min/day threshold. By comparison, 2.5% and 9.5% of American older adults accumulated activity at these levels, respectively. CONCLUSION: As assessed by objectively measured physical activity, the majority of older adults in this UK study did not meet current activity guidelines. Older adults in the UK were more active overall, but also spent more time being sedentary than US adults.

Long-term mortality of hospitalized pneumonia in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

Little is known about cause-specific long-term mortality beyond 30 days in pneumonia. We aimed to compare the mortality of patients with hospitalized pneumonia compared to age- and sex-matched controls beyond 30 days. Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hospitalized pneumonia cases were identified from record linkage (ICD-10: J12-J18). For this study we excluded people with hospitalized pneumonia who died within 30 days. Each case identified was matched to four controls and followed up until the end June 2012 (total 15 074 person-years, mean 6·1 years, range 0·08-15·2 years). Cox regression models were constructed to examine the all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality using date of pneumonia onset as baseline with binary pneumonia status as exposure. A total of 2465 men and women (503 cases, 1962 controls) [mean age (s.d.) 64·5 (8·3) years] were included in the study. Between a 30-day to 1-year period, hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 7·3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5·4-9·9] and 5·9 (95% CI 3·5-9·7), respectively (with very few respiratory deaths within the same period) in cases compared to controls after adjusting for age, sex, asthma, smoking status, pack years, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, physical activity, waist-to-hip ratio, prevalent cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. All outcomes assessed also showed increased risk of death in cases compared to controls after 1 year; respiratory cause of death being the most significant during that period (HR 16·4, 95% CI 8·9-30·1). Hospitalized pneumonia was associated with increased all-cause and specific-cause mortality beyond 30 days.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment compared with routine care for individuals with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes: analysis of the ADDITION-UK cluster-randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To examine the short- and long-term cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment compared with routine care among people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Cost-utility analysis in ADDITION-UK, a cluster-randomized controlled trial of early intensive treatment in people with screen-detected diabetes in 69 UK general practices. Unit treatment costs and utility decrement data were taken from published literature. Accumulated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using ADDITION-UK data from 1 to 5 years (short-term analysis, n = 1024); trial data were extrapolated to 30 years using the UKPDS outcomes model (version 1.3) (long-term analysis; n = 999). All costs were transformed to the UK 2009/10 price level. RESULTS: Adjusted incremental costs to the NHS were £285, £935, £1190 and £1745 over a 1-, 5-, 10- and 30-year time horizon, respectively (discounted at 3.5%). Adjusted incremental QALYs were 0.0000, - 0.0040, 0.0140 and 0.0465 over the same time horizons. Point estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) suggested that the intervention was not cost-effective although the ratio improved over time: the ICER over 10 years was £82,250, falling to £37,500 over 30 years. The ICER fell below £30 000 only when the intervention cost was below £631 per patient: we estimated the cost at £981. CONCLUSION: Given conventional thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the intensive treatment delivered in ADDITION was not cost-effective compared with routine care for individuals with screen-detected diabetes in the UK. The intervention may be cost-effective if it can be delivered at reduced cost.

Cross-sectional associations between different measures of obesity and muscle strength in men and women in a British cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The relationship between obesity and grip strength, a key indicator of sarcopenia, has been inconsistently reported. We aimed to examine associations between grip strength and both body mass index (BMI), a clinical indicator of total adiposity, and waist circumference (WC), an indicator of central adiposity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data collected from 8,441 men and women, aged 48-92 years old, who attended the third health examination of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study was used. MEASUREMENTS: Maximum grip strength (Smedley dynamometer), BMI (weight/height2) and WC (measured at the natural waist) were ascertained at a research clinic. The associations between grip strength and adiposity measures were explored using linear regression with adjustment for age, height, social class, physical activity, prevalent disease, smoking status and alcohol intake. RESULTS: Men and women were examined separately and those in the upper quartile of BMI were 2.70kg (95%CI 2.07, 3.33) and 1.46kg (95%CI 1.05, 1.86) stronger respectively than those in the bottom quartile (P trends <0.001). Grip strength also increased weakly with increasing WC. However, including both BMI and WC in the same regression model revealed an inverse association between grip strength and WC, whilst the previously observed association with BMI strengthened. For every 10cm increase in WC, grip strength was 3.56kg (95%CI 3.04, 4.08) lower in men and 1.00kg (95%CI 0.74, 1.24) lower in women. CONCLUSIONS: Larger overall body mass, indicated by higher BMI, is associated with stronger grip strength but high WC, a clinical indicator of central obesity, is associated with lower grip strength. Abdominal fat is the most metabolically active adipose tissue and this provides a clue to potential mechanisms underlying relationships between fat and skeletal muscle. Additionally, it reinforces the recommendation to measure WC in clinical practice, especially when BMI is below obese ranges.

Physical activity, sedentary time and gain in overall and central body fat: 7-year follow-up of the ProActive trial cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the independent associations of time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED-time), with total and abdominal body fat (BF), and the bidirectionality of these associations in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: We measured MVPA (min per day) and SED-time (h per day) by accelerometry, and indices of total (body weight, fat mass (FM), BF% and FM index) and abdominal BF (waist circumference (WC)) using standard procedures in 231 adults (41.3 ± 6.4 years) with parental history of type 2 diabetes (ProActive UK) at baseline, 1-year and 7-year follow-up. Mixed effects models were used to quantify the independent associations (expressed as standardised ß-coefficients (95% confidence interval (CI))) of MVPA and SED-time with fat indices, using data from all three time points. All models were adjusted for age, sex, intervention arm, monitor wear time, follow-up time, smoking status, socioeconomic status and MVPA/SED-time. RESULTS: MVPA was inversely and independently associated with all indices of total BF (for example, 1 s.d. higher MVPA was associated with a reduction in FM, ß = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.14, -0.04) s.d.) and abdominal BF (for example, WC: ß = -0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)). Similarly, higher fat indices were independently associated with a reduction in MVPA (for example, WC: ß = -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15); FM: ß = -0.27 (-0.36, -0.18)). SED-time was positively and independently associated with most fat indices (for example, WC: ß = 0.03 (-0.04, 0.09); FM: ß = 0.10 (0.03, 0.17)). Higher values of all fat indices independently predicted longer SED-time (for example, WC: ß = 0.10 (0.02, 0.18), FM: ß = 0.15 (0.07, 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of MVPA and SED-time with total and abdominal BF are bidirectional and independent among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. The association between BF and MVPA is stronger than the reciprocal association, highlighting the importance of considering BF as a determinant of decreasing activity and a potential consequence. Promoting more MVPA and less SED-time may reduce total and abdominal BF.

Examining the causal association of fasting glucose with blood pressure in healthy children and adolescents: a Mendelian randomization study employing common genetic variants of fasting glucose.

The aim of the study was to determine whether genetically raised fasting glucose (FG) levels are associated with blood pressure (BP) in healthy children and adolescents. We used 11 common genetic variants of FG discovered in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), including the rs560887 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) located in the G6PC2 locus found to be robustly associated with FG in children and adolescents, as an instrument to associate FG with resting BP in 1506 children and adolescents from the European Youth Heart Study (EYHS). Rs560887 was associated with increased FG levels corresponding to an increase of 0.08 mmol l(-1) (P=2.4 × 10(-8)). FG was associated with BP, independent of other important determinants of BP in conventional multivariable analysis (systolic BP z-score: 0.32 s.d. per increase in mmol l(-1) (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.44, P=1.9 × 10(-7)), diastolic BP z-score: 0.13 s.d. per increase in mmol l(-1) (95% CI 0.04-0.21, P=3.2 × 10(-3)). This association was not supported by the Mendelian randomization approach, neither from instrumenting FG from all 11 variants nor from the rs560887, where non-significant associations of glucose with BP were observed. The results of this study could not support a causal association between FG and BP in healthy children and adolescents; however, it is possible that rs560887 has pleiotropic effects on unknown factors with a BP lowering effect or that these results were due to a lack of statistical power.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.